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The Weekly Update

Week of June 17th, 2024
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Stocks notched a solid gain last week, driven by the Fed’s decision, May’s inflation report, and Apple’s AI-related news.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.58 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite picked up 3.24 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has lagged most of the year, slid 0.54 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 1.44 percent for the week through Thursday’s close.

S&P 500, Nasdaq Lead; Dow Lags
Market leadership took a familiar form. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led while the Dow trailed for the second week (and four out of the past six weeks).

Stocks trended higher at the start of the week as investors cheered an artificial intelligence update from Apple.

By midweek, the market had split, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 moving higher while the Dow lagged. Investors were upbeat after …

The Weekly Update

Week of June 10th, 2024
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Stocks rose last week despite conflicting stories from economic reports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up 0.29 percent while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index powered ahead 1.31 percent. The Nasdaq Composite led, picking up 2.38 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index tracks developed overseas stock markets and rose 1.29 percent for the week through Thursday’s close.

All Eyes on The Jobs Report
Weak manufacturing data prompted declines early in the week, reflecting investor concerns over the economy’s strength. But stocks rallied in anticipation of the jobs report on Friday.

However, the market reaction was mixed when the stronger-than-expected jobs report finally came. The S&P 500 touched a record high intraday before profit-taking late in the session.

The Catalyst That Wasn’t
The week closed with a jobs report that underscored the economy’s resilience while highlighting the data’s mixed nature.

The 272,000 jobs added in …

The Weekly Update

Week of June 3rd, 2024
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Stocks edged lower in the final week of May as fresh news on economic growth and inflation failed to inspire investors.

Stocks Slide
Markets shrugged off news that the Q1 Gross Domestic Product was revised lower to 1.3 percent from the initial estimated 1.6 percent. Despite concerns that the economy was cooling faster than expected, investors didn’t believe the update was enough to influence the Fed’s decision about adjusting short-term rates.

On Friday, investors were on edge waiting for the update on inflation. The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, called the personal consumption and expenditures (PCE), rose 0.2 percent in April, which was in line with forecasts.

Stocks rose slightly in pre-market trading on the news but were under pressure throughout the day as investors digested the inflation update. But in the last hour of trading, stock staged a powerful rally led …

The Weekly Update

Week of May 28th, 2024
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Last week’s stock performance was mixed, following investors’ reaction to the Fed’s May meeting minutes, while a handful of mega-cap tech companies created a buzz with their news.

Market Splits
Stocks began trading in a narrow band last week. Still, mega-cap tech names rallied in anticipation of the Q1 corporate report from a key company that makes semiconductors for artificial intelligence (AI). The enthusiasm lifted the Nasdaq to fresh records.

Federal Reserve news mid-week unsettled investors, who reacted to Federal Open Market Committee meeting notes that stated some Fed officials worried over the lack of progress on inflation.

Technology was the sole winning group for the whole week, with all other Standard & Poor’s 500 industry sectors ending in the red.

Bucking The Trend?
One of the handful of companies bucking the trend last week was Nvidia.

The semiconductor maker – the fifth largest …

The Weekly Update

Week of May 20th, 2024
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Stocks notched a solid gain last week in a mega-cap, tech-led rally bolstered by positive inflation news.

Dow 40,000
The week began quietly as market averages traded in a tight range, awaiting fresh inflation news.

On Tuesday, markets rose steadily throughout the day after digesting a mixed wholesale inflation report.

The next day, a cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report sparked a broad-based rally as the upbeat news raised investors’ hopes for a rate cut. The Nasdaq Composite and Standard & Poor’s 500 (which ended above 5300 for the first time) closed the day up 1.4 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, the bellwether 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.35 percent.

Investors took a break as the week ended, mostly yawning at mixed economic data. Notably, the Dow closed just above 40,000 on Friday.

Inflated Expectations
With the two critical inflation updates last week, …

The Weekly Update

Week of May 13th, 2024
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Stocks notched a solid gain last week as rate-cut expectations paced the rally as the Q1 earnings season wound down.

Stocks Climb Steadily
Monday opened with stocks picking up where they left off the prior Friday. Stocks were still basking in the afterglow of fresh jobs data, which eased investor concerns of an overheating economy. That and reports of a possible Middle East ceasefire fueled Monday’s rally.1

Stocks hung out in a narrow trading band Tuesday and Wednesday, yawning at the sparse economic news and a handful of negative earnings results. By contrast, the Nasdaq edged lower over those two days.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 closed above 5,200 for the first time since early April. The next day, stocks rallied, and the Dow clinched its eighth consecutive day of gains, the longest winning streak since December and its best weekly …

The Weekly Update

Week of May 6th, 2024
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Stocks notched a solid gain last week, rallying behind upbeat earnings, a dovish Fed, and mixed economic data.

Stocks Pop, Drop, Then Rally
Markets began the week with an upward bump as positive news from some mega-cap tech companies outweighed disappointing updates from other tech names.

The tone quickly changed on Tuesday as higher-than-expected Q1 wage growth triggered inflation and interest-rate anxiety—just as the Federal Open Market Committee kicked off its third meeting of the year. Each of the three major averages dropped more than 1.5 percent on the last trading day of April.

When the Fed announced it was holding rates steady on Wednesday, stocks initially rallied on the news, but sellers got the upper hand late in the trading session, and prices ended the day slightly down.

On Thursday, stocks trended higher as more companies reported upbeat Q1 results. Then, …

The Weekly Update

Week of April 29th, 2024
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Stocks staged a choppy comeback last week as investors cheered positive earnings, led by mega-cap tech stocks. The rally came to pass despite fresh data showing a slowing economy and increasing inflationary pressures.

Stocks Bounce Back, Twice
Last week opened with a rebound rally as investors breathed a sigh of relief that Middle East tensions had eased. The market rally extended into Tuesday, with investors cheering positive corporate earnings reports. By Tuesday’s market close, the S&P 500 had gained 2% for the week.

But investor enthusiasm didn’t last, as midweek saw profit taking in all three averages. Rising bond yields threw a wet blanket on market momentum; at one point, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose more than 40 basis points from its low earlier in the week.

On Thursday, markets slipped on two fresh pieces of economic data: …

The Weekly Update

Week of April 22nd, 2024
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Stocks fell for a third straight week, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s mixed but upbeat message could not offset the anxiety caused by the Middle East conflict.

Stocks Retreat
Markets began the week rattled by further escalation in the Middle East over the weekend. A bit of good news punctuated an otherwise sour Monday, as a stronger-than-expected retail sales report showed consumers were spending despite rising inflation.

On Tuesday, remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a shift in thinking—from being confident to not-so-confident about interest rate cuts in 2024. He said rates might need to stay higher until the Fed meets their 2% inflation target.

On Friday, the markets saw further declines, but investors were somewhat reassured by the perception that Thursday’s retaliatory actions in the Middle East were restricted in scope.

Silver Linings
When stocks are in a downtrend, it’s important …

The Weekly Update

Week of April 15th, 2024
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Stocks fell last week as investors sorted through conflicting inflation reports and assessed geopolitical tensions.

Inflation Spooks Markets
On Wednesday, the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report rattled markets, revealing that inflation accelerated slightly more than expected. Bond yields rose, and stocks retreated in response, as investors feared the news could influence the Fed’s rate decision. The 10-year Treasury yield had its highest intraday jump in three years.

Markets rallied Thursday as investors were encouraged by the Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which measures inflation at the producer level. Unlike CPI, PPI rose less than expected, which sparked a tech-focused rally. Markets opened lower on Friday as investors wrestled with the conflicting inflation reports.

Fears of an escalating Middle East conflict also weighed on stocks during the week. Concerns about a potential weekend event led some investors to end the week …