Weekly Update

The Weekly Update

Week of November 7th, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Hawkish comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, following the announcement of another 75-basis points interest rate hike last week, cast a pall over financial markets, sending yields higher and stocks lower.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 1.40%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 declined 3.35%. The Nasdaq Composite index lost 5.65% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 1.04%.

Powell Disappoints
The official statement released following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting appeared to suggest a potential for future easing of interest rates. Investors cheered the news, sending stocks higher. But the optimism was crushed 30 minutes later with hawkish comments by Fed Chair Powell during his post-meeting press conference.

Losses accelerated into Thursday, led by technology names, which were under pressure due to rising bond yields. The yield on the two-year …

The Weekly Update

Week of October 31st, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Stocks overcame poor earnings results from some of America’s largest companies to post gains last week as investors cheered positive earnings surprises, easing inflation and a rebound in economic growth.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 5.72%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 advanced 3.95%. The Nasdaq Composite index added 2.24% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 4.89%.

A ‘Spook-Tacular’ Week
Some mega-cap technology companies were under pressure last week on weak earnings and tepid fourth-quarter guidance. They reported multiple headwinds, including declining advertising revenues, loose expense control, and a slowdown in cloud growth.

Meanwhile, positive earnings surprises from “old economy” companies powered markets higher. This market bifurcation was evident in the divergence in the performance of the Dow Industrials and the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 posted a substantial gain despite its disproportionate …

The Weekly Update

Week of October 24th, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

A positive start to a new earnings season and late-week hopes for a near-term easing in Fed rate hikes lifted investors’ spirits and powered stocks to gains for the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 4.89%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 advanced 4.74%. The Nasdaq Composite index added 5.22% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 1.66%.

Earnings, Fed Spark Rally
The stock market narrative shifted last week from Fed interest rate hikes (a persistent drag on investor sentiment) to corporate earnings, which boosted investor enthusiasm with better-than-expected results. Stocks surged in the first two days of trading on the strength of positive earnings surprises, aided by a modest pullback in bond yields and news that the U.K. was scrapping its tax cut plans.

Mid-week, stocks surrendered some gains on a stronger …

The Weekly Update

Week of October 17th, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Stocks were mixed last week amid wide intra- and inter-day price swings, as technology shares bore the brunt of the downdraft.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.15% for the week. Meanwhile, the Standard & Poor’s 500 slipped 1.55%, and the Nasdaq Composite index dropped 3.11%. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, lost 2.48%.

Breathtaking Volatility
An above-consensus consumer inflation number sent stocks tumbling in early Thursday trading before inexplicably surging higher in a stunning reversal that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rally 1,500 points from its intraday low. Before reversing, stocks had touched levels last seen in 2020. Friday surrendered much of the previous day’s gains, sending stocks mostly lower for the week.

The stock market began the week on a volatile note, with the Nasdaq hitting a two-year low. Recession fears and new export …

The Weekly Update

Week of October 10th, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

A powerful two-day stock rebound cemented a positive week for investors as a new trading month began.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.99%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 added 1.51%. The Nasdaq Composite index increased 0.73% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 3.42%.

Stocks Start Strongly
Stocks opened the week posting their best two-day rally since March 2020, as the U.K. prime minister’s decision to reverse a tax cut proposal that had upended financial markets the previous week lifted investors.

Falling yields further lifted investor enthusiasm, as did new economic data indicating a cooling economy. Losses in the last two days erased much of the gains as concerns about higher rates and recession once again moved front and center. The selling pressure was due to a stream of hawkish comments by …

The Weekly Update

Week of October 3rd, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Rising recession fears and uncertainty in the bond and currency markets sent stocks to new 2022 lows last week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.92%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 slumped 2.91%. The Nasdaq Composite index fell 2.69%. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, lost 1.94%.

A Tumultuous Week
U.S. stocks were under pressure all week due to recession concerns and unsettled trading in the bond and currency markets. This stress followed economic steps out of the U.K. During the previous week, the Bank of England (BOE) raised interest rates, and its prime minister announced unfunded tax cuts that the markets interpreted as inflationary.

U.S. bond yields rose early last week, sending stocks lower until Wednesday’s rally following news that the BOE would buy U.K. government bonds. U.S. stocks resumed their descent the following two …

The Weekly Update

Week of September 26th, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Last week, Fed Chair Powell said the U.S. would not tame inflation without economic pain. This week heightened recession fears and sent stocks broadly lower.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 4.00%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 4.65%. The Nasdaq Composite index fell 5.07% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, declined 3.05%.

Yields Surge, Stocks Tumble
Last week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) proved unsettling for the financial markets. It wasn’t only the widely expected announcement of another rate hike but a more hawkish message that rates may be heading higher for longer than anticipated. Fed officials indicated that any policy change might be further off than investors had contemplated.

The latest rate hike caused bond yields to rise, with two-year and ten-year Treasury note yields touching levels not …

The Weekly Update

Week of September 19th, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

A hotter-than-expected inflation report sent stocks sharply lower last week as investors faced the prospect of more aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve for perhaps a longer period.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4.13%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 4.77%. The Nasdaq Composite index dropped 5.48% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, dipped 1.78%.

Inflation Deflates Market
Stocks suffered their worst day in more than two years last Tuesday as markets were caught off-guard by a higher-than-anticipated August inflation report.

Markets expected the August report to show a substantial cooling of inflation, potentially allowing the Fed to ease up on interest rate hikes. Instead, the elevated inflation number not only undercut those easing hopes but raised the possibility of a more significant rate hike. On Tuesday, traders assigned a …

The Weekly Update

Week of September 9th, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

In a holiday-shortened week of trading, stocks posted healthy gains despite more tough talk on monetary policy from Fed officials.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.66%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 3.65%. The Nasdaq Composite index picked up 4.14% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, lost 1.26%.

Stocks Rise
Stocks fell coming off the Labor Day weekend, dragged down by news that Russia was cutting off natural gas supplies to its European customers. Stocks also were under pressure due to a surprisingly strong report on business conditions, which heightened fears of continued Fed hawkishness.

Sentiment quickly improved as bond yields turned lower and oil prices fell. Investors reacted positively to comments by Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, who reiterated the Fed’s commitment to quashing inflation while acknowledging the risks of going …

The Weekly Update

Week of September 5th, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

The overhang of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech the previous week carried over into last week as investors recalibrated stock valuations amid a seemingly more assertive monetary policy stance.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.99%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 stumbled 3.29%. The Nasdaq Composite index lost 4.21%. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slid 4.90%.

Stocks Extend Losses
Investors remained unnerved by the aggressive tone of Jerome Powell’s speech and subsequent comments from Fed officials suggesting a higher rate hike than the market expected at the Fed two-day meeting ending September 21. The probability of a 75-basis point hike in September rose to nearly 65%, up from just 28% a month ago.

Stocks moved steadily lower before finding some footing on Thursday. Friday’s employment report appeared to strike a “goldilocks” note (i.e., labor …