Weekly Update

The Weekly Update

Week of August 12, 2019
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

The Week on Wall Street
Stocks spent much of last week rebounding from a Monday drop that reflected nervousness about the U.S.-China trade fight. By Thursday’s closing bell, the S&P 500 had regained all its Monday losses – but it descended again on Friday.

The three big U.S. equity benchmarks finished the week lower: the S&P declined 0.46%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 0.75%; the Nasdaq Composite, 0.56%. A broad index of foreign shares, the MSCI EAFE, lost 0.95%.

China Devalues Its Currency
Last Monday, stocks fell 3% in reaction to the overnight weakening of the Chinese yuan. A weaker yuan makes Chinese exports cheaper for buyers who pay for them in dollars.

Critics quickly accused China of manipulating its currency to strike back at the U.S. The federal government plans to impose tariffs on nearly all Chinese products next month, likely …

Half Time Report – August 2019

Here’s our new piece that walks through some market fundamentals from the 1st half of 2019. We take a look at what drove U.S. equity market performance and we examine the market forces that may affect the outlook for the second half. http://bit.ly/halftimereport

The Weekly Update

Week of August 5, 2019
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

The Week on Wall Street
Last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in more than a decade, in line with Wall Street’s expectations. Ironically, stocks had their worst week of 2019.

The S&P 500 finished the week 3.10% lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite also posted weekly losses; the blue chips fell 2.60%, while the premier tech benchmark slumped 3.92%. International stocks tracked by MSCI’s EAFE index dipped 1.06%.

Fed Cuts Benchmark Interest Rate
On Wednesday, the central bank reduced the federal funds rate by 0.25%. The latest Fed policy statement noted that “global developments” and “muted inflation” influenced the decision.

Addressing the media, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the cut as a “mid-cycle adjustment.” After that comment, Wednesday’s trading session turned volatile on the interpretation that the cut was a “one and …

The Weekly Update

Week of July 29, 2019
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

The Week on Wall Street
Last week, investors assessed earnings and the initial estimate of second-quarter economic growth, while awaiting the Federal Reserve’s next announcement about interest rates.

Stocks rose for the week; particularly, tech shares. The S&P 500 gained 1.65%; the Nasdaq Composite, 2.26%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, adding just 0.14%. MSCI’s EAFE index, a gauge of equity performance in developed foreign markets, ticked up 0.01%.

Economy Grew Moderately in Q2
Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast 2.0% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter. The actual estimate, announced Friday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, was slightly better at 2.1%.

While this is the poorest quarterly GDP number since the opening quarter of 2017, the decline in GDP largely reflects a decrease in business investment. Consumer spending improved 4.3% in Q2, and government spending rose …

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The Weekly Update

Week of July 22, 2019
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

The Week on Wall Street
Stock benchmarks retreated during the first week of the second-quarter earnings season. As some big names shared quarterly results, investors seemed more interested in what might happen at the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting.

For the week, the S&P 500 declined 1.23%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.65%, and the Nasdaq Composite, 1.18%. International stocks, measured by the week-over-week performance of the MSCI EAFE index, were down 0.79%.

Households Bought More Last Month
Retail sales were up 0.4% in June, according to the Department of Commerce. Consumer purchases account for more than two-thirds of America’s gross domestic product, and data like this may rebut some assertions that the economy is losing steam.

Traders still expect the Federal Reserve to make a rate cut at the end of this month, even with low unemployment, solid consumer spending, …

The Weekly Update

Week of July 15, 2019
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

The Week on Wall Street
Friday, the S&P 500 settled above 3,000 for the first time, after rising 0.78% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average chalked up a milestone of its own: the blue chips ended the week above 27,000, gaining 1.52% on the way. Additionally, the Nasdaq Composite wrapped up the week 1.01% higher. The MSCI EAFE index, a gauge of overseas developed markets, fell 0.65%.

Stocks rallied at midweek with help from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on monetary policy, plus the latest Fed meeting minutes.

Jerome Powell’s Statements
Wednesday, Chairman Powell told Capitol Hill lawmakers that “uncertainties around global growth and trade continue to weigh on the outlook” of the Federal Open Market Committee. He also noted that “manufacturing, trade, and investment are weak all around the world.”

On the same day, the Fed presented …

The Weekly Update

Week of July 8, 2019
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

The Week on Wall Street
U.S. stock benchmarks opened a new quarter positively. The S&P 500 gained 1.65% in the opening week of July; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 1.21%; the Nasdaq Composite, 1.94%. Overseas, stocks in developed markets, tracked by MSCI’s EAFE index, rose 1.43%.

On July 3, the S&P posted its latest record close: 2,995.82. In other news, the Department of Labor said that the economy added 224,000 net new jobs in June, far more than the 160,000 projected by analysts in a Bloomberg poll. The headline jobless rate ticked up 0.1% to 3.7% in June; the U-6 rate, including the underemployed, also rose 0.1% to 7.2%. Finally, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said that the federal government plans to levy new tariffs on $4 billion of food and beverages coming from the European Union.

Monday, …

Happy 4th of July

“America was not built on fear. America was built on courage, on imagination and an unbeatable determination to do the job at hand.” — Harry S. Truman

The Weekly Update

Week of July 1, 2019
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

The Week on Wall Street
A month of gains for stocks ended with a weekly retreat. The S&P 500 lost 0.30%; the Nasdaq Composite, 0.32%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 0.45%. In contrast, overseas shares, tracked by the MSCI EAFE index, advanced 0.14%.

Last month was the best June for the blue chips since 1938; the best month for the S&P, since 1955. The Dow gained 6.9% in June, the S&P 6.2%.

Trade Talks Could Soon Restart
All week, investors had one eye on Saturday’s Group of 20 summit in Japan, where President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping were slated to meet. This weekend, President Trump announced that he and President Xi had agreed to a resumption of trade talks between the U.S. and China. As part of that agreement, the U.S. is holding off on placing tariffs on an …