Weekly Update

The Weekly Update

Week of November 19, 2018
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Markets experienced more volatility last week, as perspectives on trade, tech, and retail pulled investor sentiment back and forth. Although domestic indexes were up on Friday, November 16, they still posted losses for the week. In all, the S&P 500 dropped 1.61%, the Dow declined 2.22%, and the NASDAQ gave back 2.15%. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE ended the week down 1.51%.

A major topic over the past couple weeks has been the ongoing, significant declines in oil prices. Last week, we did experience one turnaround—on Friday, signs that oil production may decrease next month helped oil prices start to rebound. This pricing increase contributed to S&P 500 energy stocks rising 1.1%.

In addition to oil’s current trajectory, let’s examine some of the key October data we received last week:

1. Retail Sales Beat Projections
   October’s retail sales were the …

The Weekly Update

Week of November 12, 2018
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Last week, markets experienced a 4-day winning streak before dropping on Friday, November 9. Despite those losses, domestic indexes posted gains for the week. The S&P 500 increased 2.13%, the Dow added 2.84%, and the NASDAQ was up 0.68%. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE had slight growth, ending the week up 0.20%.

From interest rates to corporate profits, investors had a number of topics to consider. In this update, we want to focus on two key details that drove markets: oil prices and midterm election results.

1. Oil Prices Declined
Oil prices continued to fall last week, posting the most consecutive daily declines in at least three decades. In fact, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures, a key oil benchmark, is officially in bear market territory. WTI has fallen more than 20% below its highest point over the past year.

What …

The Weekly Update

Week of November 5, 2018
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Markets posted strong gains last week after struggling for much of October. The S&P 500 had its best weekly performance since May, and the NASDAQ had its first positive week since September. Despite domestic markets dropping on Friday, November 2, the S&P 500 added 2.42%, the Dow increased 2.36%, and the NASDAQ gained 2.65%. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE were also up 3.34%.

What drove market performance last week?
We received a fair amount of data and reports, with the following details holding particular weight for investors:

• U.S.–China trade updates were inconsistent.
  Stocks fluctuated widely on Friday, in large part because of contradictory updates on a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China. President Trump said the two countries are a lot closer to an agreement. Larry Kudlow, Trump’s economic advisor, shared a different perspective, indicating the U.S. …

The Weekly Update

Week of October 29, 2018
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Last week did nothing to dispel October’s reputation as a tough month for the markets. The S&P 500 lost 3.94%, the Dow declined 2.97%, and the NASDAQ dropped 3.78% during what was one of 2018’s most volatile weeks so far. All three indexes are down significantly for the month, and both the S&P 500 and Dow have entered negative territory for 2018. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE also struggled, posting a 3.87% drop for the week, and a 13.31% decline for the year.

Why did stocks drop? Will they continue to do so?
Currently, many topics are on investors’ minds, from inflation to tariffs to valuations and beyond, but analysts are not pointing to one single culprit for last week’s performance. Instead, a mixture of concerns, with a large dose of emotion, seemed to drive the markets.

Emotional reactions …

The Weekly Update

Week of October 21, 2018
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Stock performance was mixed last week as investors considered the impact of interest rates, international affairs and corporate earnings. The S&P 500 gained 0.02%, and the Dow added 0.41% to post its first weekly gains in October. The NASDAQ declined 0.64% and extended its losing streak. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE dropped by 0.08%.

While the final weekly results showed relatively little growth or loss, the week included some volatility. So far, domestic indexes have struggled this month. As of October 19, the S&P 500 and Dow had each lost more than 3% for the month, and the NASDAQ was down 7%.

As we have often discussed in our market updates, volatility may feel uncomfortable, but market fluctuations are normal. That perspective becomes especially relevant in October, which is considered the most volatile month for markets.

Examining October History

Historical …

The Weekly Update

Week of October 15, 2018
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Volatility was back in full force last week. The three major domestic indexes posted several days of losses before experiencing wide swings on Friday. By week’s end, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which investors use to help measure fear in the markets, had increased by approximately 70%. The VIX also reached its highest point since February.

Despite a number of equities posting last-minute gains on Friday, all three domestic indexes had sizable losses for the week. In fact, they posted their worst weekly performance since March. The S&P 500 dropped 4.10%, the Dow declined 4.19%, and the NASDAQ gave back 3.74%. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE also lost ground, decreasing 3.96%.

What drove market performance last week?
As is typically the case, a number of details affected investor sentiment and behavior. The following topics were among the perspectives impacting …

The Weekly Update

Week of October 8, 2018
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Although new data continued to show strength in the U.S. economy, markets stumbled across the globe last week. The S&P 500 lost 0.98%, the Dow dropped 0.04%, and the NASDAQ declined 3.21%. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE struggled, posting a 2.35% loss.

While U.S. and international stocks followed similar paths last week, data is beginning to show that our economic outlooks may be very different for the moment.

U.S. Strength in a Growing International Divide
The latest labor report helped underscore some of the differences between the U.S. economy and the rest of the world. While the data missed the mark for new jobs added, September marked the 96th-straight month of job growthand the lowest unemployment level since 1969. The report pushed interest rates higher, which contributed to last week’s equity losses.

However, when describing our economy, Federal Reserve Chair …

The Weekly Update

Week of October 1, 2018
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Friday, September 28, was the last trading day in 2018’s 3rd quarter, and the S&P 500 posted its strongest quarterly return in nearly 5 years. The Dow also showed impressive returns by beating expectations for the quarter, while the NASDAQ notched record highs against 2017 numbers. For the quarter, the S&P jumped 7.2%, the Dow increased 9.3%, and the NASDAQ moved up 7.1%.

Weekly numbers, however, revealed mixed performances: the S&P 500 slipped 0.54%, the Dow fell 1.07%, and the NASDAQ gained 0.74%. Internationally, the MSCI EAFE dropped 1.07%.

As we learn more about the 3rd¬ quarter, some details from last week offer perspectives on where we stand today.

What We Learned About the 3rd Quarter Last Week

1. Consumer outlook suggests positive trends continue.
A few early reports have given us a sense of positive trends in consumer activity during the …

The Weekly Update

Week of September 24, 2018
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Last week brought new tariffs and data, and another look at changes coming to equity classifications. Overall, the S&P 500 gained 0.85% and the Dow was up 2.25%, while the NASDAQ dropped 0.29%. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE had sizable growth, posting a 2.89% increase.

A Look Back: Last Week’s Tariffs and Mixed Housing Data

For months, fears of a global trade war have dominated headlines. Last week, China and the U.S. launched new tariffs on each other’s products, but the latest round of this trade skirmish had an interesting effect. Rather than feeling concerned, both analysts and investors interpreted the tariffs to be lower than what they expected. As concerns about the global trade war calmed, both the S&P 500 and Dow reached new record highs.

In addition, we received some important economic information last week, including key …

The Weekly Update

Week of September 17, 2018
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Last week, the East Coast prepared for Hurricane Florence, which roared through the Carolinas and Georgia. As investors kept their eyes on the weather and its potential for destruction, estimates emerged of up to $27 billion in hurricane damage. This potential for damage contributed to insurance companies in the S&P 500 declining last week. While the hurricane likely won’t have a large effect on our economy, its destruction could influence data for months to come.

Meanwhile, last week brought another milestone in our economy: the 10th anniversary of Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy.

For 158 years, the Wall Street firm weathered the markets’ changes. By 2008, however, various challenges, including excessive risk taking, led to its demise. The firm’s unexpected bankruptcy announcement shocked investors and triggered market panic, leading what was a simmering financial crisis to become the Great Recession. A …