Weekly Update

The Weekly Update

Week of July 9, 2018
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Domestic stocks only traded for 4 days last week, due to the Independence Day holiday. In that time, all 3 major domestic indexes posted positive results for the week. The S&P 500 added 1.52%, the Dow gained 0.76%, and the NASDAQ increased 2.37%. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE were up as well by 0.56%.

Once again, trade and tariffs were a major topic on many people’s minds. On Friday, July 6, the U.S. and China placed $34 billion of duties on each other’s imports. However, instead of focusing on the trade-war escalation, another topic captured many investors’ attention: the latest jobs report.

What did we learn about the labor market?

This month’s report about the employment situation provided several indications that the economy continues to be healthy and growing.

1. The economy added more jobs than expected.
Economists predicted approximately 195,000 …

Happy 4th of July

We wish you a safe and enjoyable holiday, surrounded by family and friends.

The Weekly Update

Week of July 2, 2018
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

International trade concerns continue to create uncertainty in markets around the world. Despite the markets’ slight rises on Friday, June 29, they recorded losses for the week. The S&P 500 fell 1.33%, the Dow gave back 1.26%, and the NASDAQ dropped 2.37%. Internationally, the MSCI EAFE declined 1.10%.

Friday also marked Q2’s last trading day. The U.S. economy remains strong thanks to low unemployment numbers and strong corporate earnings. Meanwhile, on Thursday, the Fed announced that all but one bank passed stress tests evaluating their ability to weather a financial downturn.

This week, we’ll address President Trump’s proposed tariffs on international imports and their effect on stock performance.

The Breakdown: Global Trade Concerns

President Trump maintains that China and other countries have consistently practiced unfair trade tactics and imposed large tariffs on U.S. exports. In response, the White House has proposed …

The Weekly Update

Week of June 25, 2018
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Stocks stumbled across the globe last week as trade tensions continued to escalate. Despite rebounding somewhat on Friday, the S&P 500 experienced its first weekly loss in a month, and the Dow posted its worst week since March. The S&P 500 dropped 0.89%, the Dow lost 2.03%, and the NASDAQ fell 0.69%. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE gave back 0.98%.

While trade headlines may affect market performance, a closer look at the data shows other, more powerful drivers affecting equity prices. In particular, many investors continue to focus on corporate earnings estimates.

Analyzing Corporate Earnings
Strong corporate earnings have helped maintain a sense of market balance in 2018. As the media focuses on political stories, corporate earnings estimates continue to rise—and have a greater market affect than many investors may recognize.

How Corporate Earnings Estimates Work
Many financial services companies hire …

The Weekly Update

Week of June 18, 2018
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Last week stocks showed mixed results as political headlines continued to dominate the news. The Dow lost 0.89% and the S&P 500 was almost flat with a 0.02% gain. The NASDAQ, on the other hand, reached a record high on Thursday and ended the week up 1.32%. Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ experienced their 4th week of gains in a row. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE lost ground, posting a 0.52% decline.

Two Key Perspectives from Last Week

1. Trade tension continued.
Spats with U.S. allies—including Canada—and ongoing threats of a trade war with China captured investors’ attention last week. On Friday, equities briefly stumbled when the U.S. pledged new tariffs on Chinese goods, and China responded by promising the same level of tariffs on the U.S. A true trade war could slow global economic growth, but the …

The Weekly Update

Week of June 11, 2018
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

As last week ended, tension between the U.S. and some of its greatest allies was on the rise. Trade remained a hot-button topic ahead of the G-7 meeting in Canada, but investors seemed largely unfazed by the drama. In fact, all 3 domestic indexes posted strong results: The S&P 500 added 1.62% and the NASDAQ gained 1.21%, with both indexes notching their 3rd week of gains in a row. The Dow ended Friday up 2.77% for the week—recording both its highest level and largest weekly gain since March. International stocks were also up, with the MSCI EAFE increasing by 0.91%.

While geopolitical headlines keep unfolding, new data continues to indicate that the U.S. economy is on solid ground. Let’s examine a few updates we received last week:

1. The trade deficit decreased in April.
The latest trade data was largely …

The Weekly Update

Week of June 4, 2018
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Markets experienced heightened volatility this week, with both the S&P 500 and Dow dropping 0.82% and 1.60% respectively. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ rose 0.24% as international markets took a small dip with the MSCI EAFE losing 1.10%.

The markets’ highs and lows came from a variety of economic and geopolitical developments. The U.S. jobs report posted solid gains while international trade concerns continued to cause some unease. In this market update, we’ll break down the major stories to help you understand what moved markets.

Impressive Jobs Report

Outstanding nonfarm payroll employment numbers rolled in on Friday, and the data supports a strong U.S. economy. Here is a snapshot of some key numbers:

• Unemployment dropped to 3.8%—its lowest recording in 18 years.
• Payroll growth jumped to 223,000, far beyond the expected 188,000.
• Average hourly earnings climbed 2.7%; as a result, the Fed …
  

The Weekly Update

Week of May 29, 2018
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Geopolitical uncertainty affected stocks last week, as the historic summit between the U.S. and North Korea began to look less likely. On Thursday, May 24, President Trump announced that the summit was off, and stocks stumbled in reaction. The next day, Trump said the meeting might still occur next month, leaving investors questioning the eventual outcome.

Also, on the geopolitical front, an announcement that Saudi Arabia and Russia would consider easing back oil supply restrictions affected stocks. U.S. crude oil prices dropped in response, pulling energy stocks down with them.

Despite these developments, major domestic indexes increased last week. The S&P 500 gained 0.31%, the Dow added 0.15%, and the NASDAQ grew by 1.08%. International stocks dropped, with the MSCI EAFE decreasing by 1.60%.

What kept U.S. stocks in positive territory for the week?

Solid corporate earnings helped drive upward movement.

Several …

The Weekly Update

Week of May 21, 2018
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Major domestic indexes went down last week after all three gained more than 2% the previous week. The S&P 500 dropped 0.54%, the Dow gave back 0.47%, and the NASDAQ lost 0.66%. International stocks also stumbled; the MSCI EAFE decreased by 0.61%.

Two familiar topics were on many investors’ minds last week: trade and treasuries. Here is a recap of the key details and their market impacts.

1. U.S. and China Resumed Trade Talks

Background:
Tension between the world’s 2 largest economies continued last week as the U.S. and China launched another round of trade discussions. Both countries have threatened billions of dollars of tariffs on the other’s products, but so far, neither has acted.

On Saturday, May 19, the countries released a joint statement saying they would take measures to “substantially reduce the United States’ trade deficit in goods with China.” …

The Weekly Update

Week of May 14, 2018
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

On Friday, the markets closed the week gaining traction. The Dow had 7 days of consecutive growth, rising 2.34%—its largest weekly gain since March. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 rose 2.41%, the NASDAQ jumped 2.68%, and the MSCI EAFE increased 1.41%.

Various factors came together to support the growth. From geopolitical topics to strong corporate earnings, we’ll focus on 3 key developments that drove movement.

1. Energy Shares Boosted by Iran Nuclear Deal Withdrawal

President Trump’s decision on Tuesday to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal helped push the energy sector higher. With the possibility of renewed sanctions on the horizon, the anticipation of a pullback from global oil supplies helped boost prices. Though oil prices fell from a 3½-year high on Friday, it was the 2nd week of growth, driving energy shares to rise 3.8%.

2. Technology Sector Jumps Amid Strong …