The Weekly Update
Week of August 12th, 2024
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®
Stocks ended last week with modest losses, masking a volatile five-day trading period that saw investors embrace recession concerns and then dismiss the slow-down talk as speculation as the week progressed.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.60 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index ended flat (-0.04 percent). The Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.18 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 1.21 percent.
Stocks Stage Comeback
Monday was the worst day for the S&P 500 and the Dow in nearly two years. As recession talk grew louder, investors took a “risk off” position.
On Monday, the Japanese market had its worst drop since 1987 as market participants unwound positions from a popular trading strategy called a “carry trade” amid a global sell-off in stock prices.
But on Thursday, initial jobless claims fell less than expected—a positive sign for the labor markets— which quieted some of the recession talk. Also, as the week progressed, there was growing speculation that the July jobs report was more of an outlier than a lead indicator of a pending recession.
By Friday’s close, all three major averages had regained most of the week’s losses.
Mortgage Update
Last Thursday, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped to 6.47 percent—a 15-month low. Many home buyers welcomed the news, and it appeared to help support Thursday’s rally.
But the announcement left some wondering whether rates would continue to trend lower. Mortgage rates are tied to the interest rates set by the Federal Reserve. Some speculated the drop was due to market participants anticipating the Fed would adjust rates in September, which remains anything but certain.
This Week: Key Economic Data
Tuesday: Producer Price Index (PPI). Fed Official Raphael Bostic speaks.
Wednesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). EIA Petroleum Status Report.
Thursday: Jobless Claims. Retail Sales. Industrial Production. Business Inventories. Fed Officials Alberto Musalem and Patrick Harker speak.
Friday: Housing Starts and Permits. Consumer Sentiment. Fed Official Austan Goolsbee speaks.
Source: Investor’s Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; August 8, 2024
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings
Tuesday: The Home Depot, Inc. (HD)
Wednesday: Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
Thursday: Walmart Inc. (WMT), Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT), Deere & Company (DE)
Source: Zacks, August 8, 2024
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.
